Market Updates

Kesan Januari dan permulaan tahun arnab bilamana pasaran mula dibuka selepas Chinese New Year dengan high volume di tengah kebimbangan foreign investors bertindak balas dengan kebimbangan kenaikan inflasi.

FBMKLCI ditutup pada 1,531.82 points sebelum CNY dan mendaki sehingga 1544.35 points pada 8 Feb. 2011. Namun pada Khamis, KLCI jatuh 2% dalam masa sehari di 1503.99 points. Market volume adalah high dengan daily average hampir 3 billion shares minggu lepas dibandingkan 1.5 billion shares pada minggu sebelum Chinese New Year.

Aktiviti pengambilan untung dilihat berlaku pada pertengan Januari 2011 bilamana KLCI dilihat struggles to make new highs dalam keadaan relatively higher volume.

Fundamentally, pasaran is lacking fresh leads. Banyak yang kita dengar di pasaran adalah KLCI is going to climb higher kerana pendapat tentang general election window dressing, tetapi tiada concrete catalysts untuk menyokong speculation dalam keadaan pasaran yang overbought. Pasaran di BARAT dilihat climbing higher setiap hari terutamanya di New York dan ianyanya boleh dilihat sebagai bullish kerana pasaran Barat ketinggalan berbanding pasaran Asean yang sudah ke hadapan. Pasaran Asean adalah berada di historical highs berbanding pasaran US yang hanya recovered about 80% daripada ketinggian terakhir pada 2007.

FBMKLCI sedang menguji dan rebounded daripada long term 90-day moving average pada minggu terakhir January. Bagaimanapun, rebound ini tak bertahan lama dan FBMKLCI pulled back dan waktu ini telah pecah di bawah 90-day moving average. Kali terakhir KLCI pecahkan dan berada di bawah level ini adalah pada February dan May tahun lepas. Bila ini berlaku tahun lepas, KLCI akan jatuh about 3 to 4 percent di bawah moving average sebelum ianya akan rebound semula.3 to 4 percent di bawah 90-day moving average semasa adalah di 1,440 dan 1,455 points.

Walaupun berlaku strong pullback semenjak ketinggan terakhir di 1,580 points, umumnya trend masih menaik. Short to long term 30 to 90 day moving averages masih menaik.

Dengan keadaan pasaran yang berubah ini dan spekulasi yang pelbagai, dijangka equity market akan lebih volatile. Short term support level pada 1,500 points akan menjadi critical points yang menentukan kemana arah pasaran sama ada terus menyambung short term up trend rally. Rebound dijangka dalam masa terdekat dan jika index gagal untuk berada di atas 1,500 points level, ianya mungkin memusnahkan harapan KLCI nak buat new high tahun ni. 1,568 points mungkin be the top of the FBMKLCI.

Nota : Memantau perkembangan semasa indeks boleh membantu seorang consultant unit trust mengambil sebarang keputusan perlu untuk memaksimumkan pelaburan unit trust dalam dana syariah unit amanah. Kaedah ini lebih kepada keputusan jangka pendek dalam mengambil peluang menggandakan pulangan pelaburan unit amanah melalui simpanan KWSP daripada akaun 1. Hubungi Mohd Zarif di 019-3405447

KLCI Update after CNY

Weekly Chart 3 Years

Today's Chart

Supported by buying of selected index stocks, the FBM KLCI rose to a one-week intraday high of 1,536.3 points on Wednesday before closing at 1,531.8 points to register a gain of 0.7% for the week.

Regional markets generally closed firmer on continued expectations that U.S. economic activities are gaining strength.

Looking ahead, the local market is anticipated to move in tandem with overseas markets as investors continue to monitor the outlook for global economic activities.

Bursa Malaysia is set to re-test the psychological 1,550-point mark next week with investors making a slow return to the market after the long Lunar New Year holiday.

"The forecast for Malaysian market is broadly positive and we expect investors to wade in to bargain after the holiday," Affin Investment Bank head of retail research Dr Nazri Khan said.

He said the market, which ended on a bullish note on Wednesday despite Bursa Malaysia shut half-day would continue its momentum, thanks to positive news from the United States (US) and China markets.

Trading on the equities market closed from 12.30pm on Wednesday for Chinese New Year celebrations and resumes on Monday, Feb 7.

The market was also closed on Tuesday for Federal = Territory Day.

"Volume was healthy, despite the half-day trading, following better-than-expected manufacturing data from the US and China.

"With the Dow Jones Industrial Average touching the psychological 12,000-point level on Monday, the Asian markets will follow suit, given another bullish sign that the US economy is recovering," Nazri said.

HwangDBS Vickers Research said news flow on the economic and corporate fronts would go slow too before picking up next week.

"On tap are the Industrial Production Index for December last year and sector update for January statistics, both to be released on next Thursday, and earnings scorecards from the likes of Maybank (next Friday)," it said in its Malaysia Equity Research.

On Wednesday, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI rose to 1,531.82 compared to last week's closing of 1,521.89.

The local bourse started this week on a weaker note before going upward following several positive news locally and abroad.

On Wednesday, International Trade and Industry Minister Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said Malaysia's total trade in 2010 surpassed the RM1 trillion mark to register RM1.169 trillion, attributed to an impressive growth last year.

Nota : Setiap fund dalam unit amanah yang diuruskan oleh Fund Manager secara umumnya meletakkan KLCI sebagai benchmark. Mohd Zarif percaya jika KLCI mampu menunjukkan performance baik maka begitu juga yang berlaku pada dana-dana dalam unit amanah yang anda laburkan. Jika anda berminat pada pemantauan secara aktif atas dana unit amanah anda, silakan hubungi saya di 019-3405447.

Rebalance the portfolio

Because investment in a portfolio perform according to the vagaries of the market, over time certain investment may grow while others may decline. This might result in your investment's asset allocation deviating from their original specification. When they become too heavily exposed in one asset class, their risk increase accordingly. To bring the portfolio back in line with the original asset allocation, investments in the under-weighted asset class can be increased with the proceeds of the partial sale of the asset class that has become overweighted with respect to the original asset allocation.

It is time for you as investors to rebalanced your portfolio when

• substantial gains incur or major loses that significantly skew portfolio allocation
• investment objectives change (e.g pay off a large mortgage, nearing retirement or child is heading to collage soon)
• an asset class within the portfolio is consistently and continually slipping compared with the benchmarks

Thus, as investors its is important to monitor portfolios regularly to determine the financial goals. The general rule of thumb is set a date for rebalancing and stick to it. the prevailing view is that rebalancing annually appears to work well for most general investors without inccuring woo much costs.

Note : Mohd Zarif would be very glad to work hand to hand with anyone whom concern about their retirement plan, education plan or even personal financial goals, especially all his investors', in order to do so, feel free to drop me with a text message or call me at 019-3405447

WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS

• The FBM KLCI eased to a 5-week intraday low of 1,505.4 points on Wednesday before closing at 1,521.9 points to register a loss of 1.7% for the week.

• Selected regional markets generally closed on a mixed note following news of higher-than-expected inflationary pressures.

Looking ahead, the local market is anticipated to move in tandem with overseas markets. Investors will continue to monitor the outlook for the U.S. and global economic activities.

Meanwhile,

• MIDF Research head Zulkifli Hamzah said the market was supported by local investors as reflected by the intraday swing in the FBM KLCI.

• “The pattern of order flow strongly indicates aggressive selling by foreign investors, which came as no surprise given weak sentiment towards emerging Asian markets.

• “It will take some time before the market stages a sustainable rebound. We expect the index to consolidate at current level with 1,500 providing a strong support,” he said.

Nota : Memantau perkembangan semasa indeks boleh membantu seorang consultant unit trust mengambil sebarang keputusan perlu untuk memaksimumkan pelaburan unit trust dalam dana syariah unit amanah. Kaedah ini lebih kepada keputusan jangka pendek dalam mengambil peluang menggandakan pulangan pelaburan unit amanah melalui simpanan KWSP daripada akaun 1. Ingin berkongsi idea? hubungi Mohd Zarif di 019 3405447